COMPARATIVE RISKS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

PREAMBLE: Need for Objectivity in light of Japan’s Emergency.

The situation of Japan, following the world’s fifth largest recorded earthquake since 1900 and resulting tsunami, is catastrophic. It is possible that tens of thousands may have drowned, swept away with their coastal infrastructure. Hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps millions, have been displaced and lost family members and their livelihoods.

The catastrophe has given rise to a new emergency as a result of damage to several nuclear power plants. There is a risk of reactor meltdown. Containment efforts now underway are in a dynamic phase, with changes in status reported on a continuous basis.

Although there appears to have been comprehensive coverage of Japan’s humanitarian disaster, the global media is also monitoring this sub-story with an intensity that may turn out to be disproportionate to the overall catastrophe, or perhaps not, giving time to both nuclear power proponents and adversaries to vent their opportunistic viewpoints.

Even some mainstream media in Canada (e.g., CTV 10 pm News, March 14 Pacific DST) appeared to hype this aspect of the disaster, seemingly appealing to populist fear about nuclear power, rather than objectively placing this in the perspective of the far greater human impact of a massive earthquake and tsunami. American PBS Newshour at 6pm was more balanced.

In light of these observations, we searched for up to date sources of scientific information on nuclear safety, and selected as a primary reference for this issue a recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report Comparing Nuclear Accident Risks with Those from Other Energy Sources [1]. We refer readers to it (reference below) for a policy-relevant technical document, written for intelligent lay readers.

A RATIONAL APPROACH TO ENERGY CHOICES
Some Observations (our italics added for selective emphasis)

As the 2010 OECD report notes, many countries are reconsidering the role of nuclear energy in their energy mix, as a means to alleviate the concerns over climate change, security of energy supply and the price and price volatility of fossil fuels. However, nuclear energy remains a contentious technology in some political circles and in the minds of many members of the public.

One of the common themes of concern is the safety of nuclear power plants. However a rational choice of energy sources should involve an even handed comparison of risks across the various energy chains available.

There is little value in rejecting one source if that which replaces it presents even greater hazards. The purpose of the OECD document therefore, is said to provide energy policy makers with quality data and information that will enable understanding of how accident risks are managed in nuclear plants and also to provide a rational analysis of the relative risks presented by the various major energy chains used for the production of electricity.

The OECD report presented data compiled by the Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland) on accidents causing five or more prompt deaths in the energy industry between 1969 and 2000, during which there were 1870 such severe accidents globally resulting in 81,258 deaths. The only severe accident at a nuclear power plant (Chernobyl) killed 31 plant and emergency workers.

Regarding long range health impacts in areas affected by Chernobyl, one set of OECD estimates project up to 33,000 eventual deaths over 70 years, using a particular assumption. However, the assumption is that of a "linear dose response relationship with no threshold" (LNT), and if the same logic is applied to background radiation (normally experienced by all people) … "for the 70 years…the collective dose from natural background would be… 1500 times larger, therefore theoretically causing 1500 times as many fatalities (~50 million) due to exposure to natural background radiation…” Clearly the validity of the LNT model is controversial at best, and some consider it discredited.

With nuclear accidents being so rare, and data on resulting adverse health and safety outcomes therefore being so limited, the OECD analysis also uses an alternative technique called “probabilistic safety analysis”. Applied to a Swiss nuclear power plant, this shows a 1 in 1 million-year probability of an accident serious enough to cause 2000 latent fatalities. Overall, the likelihood of an accident and radiological release at a new nuclear plant is 1600 times lower than it was when the first reactors were built.

Interestingly, latent deaths from accidents in non-nuclear energy sources were not included, although premature deaths caused by particulates from fossil fuel generation are estimated at around 288,000 per year worldwide.
Translation: Consider this in terms of over a million dead every four years from inhaling the emissions of burning fossil fuel!

From such OECD analyses and observations therefore, it is difficult not to recognize and concur with their observation that...
"Overall, accident-related deaths from (nuclear) energy use are much smaller than those that result from the health effects of fossil fuel emissions, but they attract much more media and public attention."

Discussion
The US Academy of Sciences, like scientific advisory bodies of other nations, has recognized for decades that all energy systems entail some health, environmental, or socio-political risks. But there is considerable difference among various energy systems in the magnitude, timing, and nature of these associated risks. It is this difference that allows (and requires) a degree of choice,…with regard to selecting energy alternatives.[2]

However, Japan’s current nuclear power plant emergency is being utilized by at least some of the world media to focus concern on the global expansion of nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuel. Although there may be some special interests also involved in this position, such concerns have a completely legitimate foundation, especially in Japan, the only country ever to have experienced the human tragedy of nuclear bombing. Nonetheless, issues surrounding the development of nuclear power are highly complex and choices between nuclear and alternative sources should involve relevant comparisons of risks and benefits.

The body of up to date scientific evidence presented in the referenced OECD report indicates that nuclear power may be the safest available option to meet the energy demands of developed and developing nations.[1] By contrast, based on the evidence, fossil fuels are actually the most hazardous, whether through the perspective of human health (short or long term) and environmental impacts e.g., global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Hydroelectricity appears safe (notwithstanding that the worst energy-related accident is the Banqiao/Shimantan dam failure in China, when ~30,000 people were killed in 1975), but the reality is that most hydro opportunities are already exploited. The potential of biofuels, wind and tidal power, also appear to have significant trade-offs (e.g., crops for food versus fuel; environmental and aestheic impacts of wind power; fish migration, bird habitat disruption, silt build up with regard to tidal power); however, there may be more potential in these options than currently realized as technologies advance, and this may be true also for solar and geothermal power.

Conclusion
In the end, it is obvious that risks are associated with every source of energy. And of course, in each setting decisions must be made as to the viability of available choices. However, rather than the media exploiting reactor damage associated with Japan’s major earthquake and tsunami, surely it would be more responsible journalism to promote a debate better informed by scientific evidence, taking into account long term biological and environmental sustainability, and placed in the global context.

References:
1. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Comparing Nuclear Accident Risks with Those from Other Energy Sources OECD Nuclear Energy Agency NEA No. 6861. ISBN 978-92-64-99122-4. http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2010/nea6862-comparing-risks.pdf Accessed March 14, 2011.
2. Energy Policy and Strategy. National Center for Atmospheric Research. In: Proceedings of a Conference on Non-Fossil Fuel and Non-Nuclear Fuel Energy Strategies. Volume 4, Issue 5, October 1979, Pages 919-931 Honolulu, Hawaii.

THE GAZA FOG OF ASYMMETRICAL VIOLENCE Need for International Inquiry

PREAMBLE: For this issue we present verbatim, a recent report by Amnesty International which outlines the desperate situation of the people of Gaza due to the Israeli blockade. While this seemingly archaic military tactic continues to be excused by Israel as an act of self-defence, independent analyses have revealed this to be capricious in terms of the range of prohibited items, and it is obviously counter-productive to the peace effort although apparently good politics in Israel itself. On the ground however, the situation is nothing less than a humanitarian disaster, especially as over half the Gaza population are children.

Regarding the boarding of a relief ship on which 9 relief workers were killed by Israeli military, while it is obvious that this must be subjected to an internal inquiry, it is doubtful that this will prove satisfactory in the eyes of world opinion. An international inquiry appears to be in order, as proposed by the United Nations and many countries which have voiced criticisms of Israel's blockade.

We also note that the Harper government of Canada has aligned itself so completely with the Israeli position that it appears to have lost the capacity for impartial analysis. The presence on the Israeli tribunal of a former Canadian military judge advocate (one of only two international observors) will surely be tainted by this, at least as a matter of perception. For a June 14 BBC article on the tribunal membership, see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10309872.stm

In the present politically disingenuous fog of asymmetrical violence, organizations such as Amnesty Internatinal play an indispensable role in bringing an independent view to bear on this example of massive unresolved human rights abuse.

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REPORT:
Suffocating Gaza - the Israeli blockade's effects on Palestinians

Israel's military blockade of Gaza has left more than 1.4 million Palestinian men, women and children trapped in the Gaza Strip, an area of land just 40 kilometres long and 9.5 kilometres wide.

Mass unemployment, extreme poverty and food price rises caused by shortages have left four in five Gazans dependent on humanitarian aid. As a form of collective punishment, Israel’s continuing blockade of Gaza is a flagrant violation of international law.

The situation in Gaza has been made worse by the Egyptian government’s general closure of the Rafah crossing, although this was opened following the deaths of activists on the Gaza flotilla.

However, it is Israel, as the occupying power, that bears the foremost responsibility for ensuring the welfare of the inhabitants of Gaza.

Closed crossings
Since the blockade of Gaza was imposed in June 2007, none of the Israeli-controlled crossings between Gaza and Israel has been open in a regular or consistent way, and relatively little aid is getting through.

The one other land crossing at Rafah, on the border between Gaza and Egypt, is kept shut most of the time. The closures prevent the movement of Palestinians into and out of Gaza in all but a handful of cases, generally in exceptional humanitarian cases.

Basic goods
The blockade prohibits most exports and restricts the entry of basic goods, including food and fuel. Much of the available food is provided by the UN and other aid agencies, or smuggled in through tunnels running under the Egypt-Gaza border and then sold on at exorbitantly high prices to Gaza’s beleaguered residents.

The situation has been made worse by the Egyptian government’s construction of a steel wall along the border at Rafah to disrupt the cross-border smuggling that has become Gaza’s lifeline, as well as the bombing of tunnels by the Israeli airforce.

Economic collapse
Rather than targeting armed groups, the blockade mainly hits the most vulnerable, such as children (who make up more than half of the population in Gaza), the elderly, the sick and the Gaza Strip's large refugee population.

According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, the number of refugees living in abject poverty in the Gaza Strip has tripled since the blockade began. These families lack the means to purchase even the most basic items, including soap, school materials and clean drinking water. According to the UN, more than 60 per cent of households are currently "food insecure".

Lack of facilities
There are worsening problems with the supply of electricity in the Gaza Strip, with many residents enduring 8-12 hours of power cuts each day. There are also recurrent shortages of cooking gas, requiring the implementation of a rationing scheme in which hospitals and bakeries are prioritized.

Aid blocked
While Israel allows some humanitarian supplies from international aid agencies into Gaza, these are strictly limited and frequently delayed. UN agencies have said that additional storage and transportation costs incurred from delays due to the blockade totalled around $5 million in 2009.

Health
Gaza's health sector has been plagued by shortages in equipment and medical supplies during the blockade.

Following the Israeli closure of crossings, people with medical conditions that cannot be treated in Gaza have been required to apply for permits to leave the territory to receive treatment in either foreign hospitals or Palestinian hospitals in the West Bank.

The Israeli authorities frequently delay or refuse these permits; some Gazans have died while waiting to obtain permits to leave the territory for medical treatment elsewhere.

World Health Organization (WHO) trucks of medical equipment bound for Gazan hospitals have repeatedly been turned away, without explanation, by Israeli border officials.

The Gaza conflict
From 27 December 2008 to 18 January 2009, Gaza was subjected to a devastating Israeli military offensive – Operation “Cast Lead” – which Israel said it carried out to stop Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups firing indiscriminate rockets into Israel.

More then 1,380 Palestinians were killed, including more than 300 children and other civilians, and thousands were injured. Many thousands of homes were destroyed or severely damaged, as were the electricity and water systems. Civilian buildings, including hospitals and schools, were also damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks.

Operation “Cast Lead” pushed the humanitarian crisis in Gaza to catastrophic levels. Since it concluded, the blockade has severely hampered or prevented reconstruction efforts. With many construction materials barred or limited by Israel, Gaza’s inhabitants are unable to rebuild their shattered lives.

Continued violence
In November 2009, Hamas declared a unilateral cessation of rocket fire, although this has since been breached on several occasions by members of Palestinian armed groups.

Since the ceasefire following Operation “Cast Lead” in January 2009, one person in southern Israel has been killed by mortars and rockets fired by Palestinian armed groups.

Israeli military forces, meanwhile, have conducted regular raids into Gaza and have continued to bomb the tunnels under the border at Rafah used for smuggling between Gaza and Egypt. In the year following Operation “Cast Lead”, 71 Palestinians were killed and 130 injured in the Gaza tunnels from tunnel collapse, accidents or airstrikes.

Israeli soldiers also continue to shoot at Palestinian farmers, fishermen and other civilians when they venture near Gaza’s perimeter or approach the three nautical mile limit that Israel imposes on Gaza’s coastline causing deaths and injuries.

Collective punishment
The Israeli authorities have put forward a range of justifications for the blockade - saying variously that it is a response to attacks from Palestinian armed groups, a reaction to the continued holding of the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and a means to pressure the Hamas de facto administration.

But whatever its stated justification, the blockade is collectively punishing the entire population of Gaza, the majority of whom are children, rather than targeting the Hamas administration or armed groups.

SOURCE: Amnesty International June 1, 2010. http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/suffocating-gaza-israeli-blockades-effects-palestinians-2010-06-01

FIRST THEY CAME… VIGNETTES IN THE DISMANTLING OF DEMOCRATIC MYTHS

PREAMBLE: In this issue we offer a selection of extracts from reputable sources that focus on the disastrous trajectory of the current US administration in undermining the beliefs that underpin western democracies. We dedicate the issue to Pastor Martin Niemoller (1892–1984), whose famous poem “First they came…” about the inactivity of German intellectuals during the Nazi rise to power and the subsequent purging of their chosen targets, group by group, most devastatingly to German Jews.
For historical perspective on this poem visit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came...
The Sidebar addresses Canada’s posture on US Foreign Policy, and related vignettes.

SUPPORT BUILDING FOR IMPEACHMENT
Impeachment is the first step under the US Constitution for removing a president from office, a process by which possible crimes may be investigated and charges laid. In a Gallup survey recently released by USA Today, 36% of respondents believe there is justification for Congress to begin impeachment proceedings against George W. Bush. [1] Since 2006, Democratic lawmakers have openly discussed Bush’s impeachment, either for not telling the truth about his reasons for going to war in Iraq, and/or for authorizing wiretapping of Americans. [2] State and local governments can also play a major role in the impeachment process by sending charges to the Congress for it to act on. Eleven states have initiated Impeachment Resolutions. Vermont has passed its resolution, while numerous cities and counties have also passed such resolutions. Efforts are now underway in several other states to initiate impeachment. [3]
Sources: 1. Angus Reid Global Monitor. July 12, 2007. http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16461 2. Atlanta Progressive News, Global Research. March 11, 2006 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060311&articleId=2085 3. Editorials and information on how to impeach Bush and Cheney. http://www.impeachbush.tv/impeach/bystate.html

THE TRAGIC CASE OF THE STATELESS UIGHARS
Tirana, Albania: Ahktar Qassim Basit says he is not angry about the 4 years he spent incarcerated at Guantanamo Bay. He and fellow Muslims from western China’s Uighar ethnic minority, were living in a hamlet near Tora Bora (Afghanistan), when US Forces bombed the area in 2001.Taken prisoners, then interned at Guantanamo, the men were “freed” after being found to pose no threat to the US. Their captors mumbled a perfunctory apology before flying them to Albania as “refugees” versus repatriation, citing China’s past treatment of the minority. Living for over a year in a squalid government refugee centre under armed guard, they are told that to gain their liberty, they must first learn Albanian to get work permits, and somehow must accomplish this on their own; they are losing hope of seeing their wives and children again.
Source: Tim Golden. New York Times. June 10, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/10/world/europe/10resettle.html?amp;amp;amp;ei=5088&en=5c446ec162d28fc6&ex=1339128000&partner=rss&pagewanted=print

NOTE: US political influentials such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell are now pressing for closure of the Guanatamo prison camp, surely too long a silence. BBC News June 11, 2007.

WEB OF DECEIT – Book Review
Because of restrictions imposed by the Special Tribunal prosecuting Saddam Hussein, the role of the US and its allies in his crimes was never explored at his trial. This investigative history reveals the full extent of western complicity in Iraq. The deceit described by author Barry Lando, ranges from CIA backed coups to help the Baath Party seize power, to the US encouraging Saddam to invade Iran, to America’s willful ignorance of his chemical weapons use, and the tragic impact of trade sanctions, maintained long after being proven ineffective and despite huge numbers of Iraqi civilians (mainly children) dying as a result. An unrestricted international trial might have divulged these facts, but victor’s justice prevented it. Most media coverage has ignored these facts; Web of Deceit breaks the silence.
Reference: Lando B. Web of Deceit - the History of Western Complicity in Iraq: from Churchill to Kennedy to George W Bush. Doubleday Canada. 2007.
NOTE: Lando is a graduate of Harvard and Columbia universities, and for 25 years was an investigative producer with 60 Minutes.

BELATEDLY UPHOLDING THE RULE OF LAW
For several years, President Bush has claimed that congressional authority to attack Afghanistan after 9/11 was a “declaration of a war on terror” that gave him power to decide who combatants are and incarcerate them in military prisons indefinitely without charges, even foreign nationals living legally within the US. On June 11, 2007 in a 2-1 decision, a 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals rejected this claim, demonstrating how threatening this policy is to the US Constitution and the rule of law. The court said that the Constitution and precedents made it clear that foreigners living legally in the US have the same right to due process as any citizen.
Source: Editorial. International Herald Tribune. June 13, 2007.

IRAQ’s HUMANITARIAN DISASTER
The US-led invasion in March 2003 caused many civilian casualties, but did not immediately create a major humanitarian crisis or set off mass migration. Soon after however, counter-insurgency operations, including attacks on Iraq cities eg., Falluja, led to increased mortality and displacement affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Beginning in 2006, sectarian clashes and communal violence led to rising death and injury, with massive new displacement.[1]

According to OXFAM child malnutrition rates have risen from 19 % before the US-led invasion in 2003 to 28% now, and 8 million people are in need of emergency assistance.[2] This includes:
• 4 million who are ‘food-insecure and in dire need of different types of humanitarian assistance’
• >2 million displaced people inside Iraq
• >2 million Iraqis in neighbouring countries, mainly Syria and Jordan, making this the fastest-growing refugee crisis in the world.

According to the United Nations Development Programme, 1/3 of the population now lives in poverty.[1] Education has broken down. Worse, basic needs such as drinking water, food, sanitation and electricity are not being met. Hospitals lack basic supplies and are understaffed. The international relief system is not able to respond to the growing humanitarian challenges.
References:
1. Global Policy Forum. July 11, 2007. http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/crisisindex.htm
2. OXFAM Briefing Paper. July 30, 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/18_07_07_oxfam_iraq.pdf

JUXTAPOSING MORAL CHOICES
“But what is $1.5 billion in today’s world? That is what we spend every day on the Pentagon. That’s our daily military budget. So here is the calculation, and here is the choice. One day’s Pentagon spending would provide all sleeping sites in Africa with five years of bed-net coverage, to fend off a disease (malaria) which kills millions every year. That’s a choice. We haven’t made it. My suggestion is, the Pentagon take off next Thursday”.
Source: Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute, Columbia University. Convocation Address to Ursinus College. As reported in: New York Times, June 10, 2007.

US DOMESTIC IMPACTS OF THE IRAQ WAR Example: Education
13 Days in Iraq: $3.4 billion = Cut in education budget in President's FY 07 budget from FY 06 funding support for the arts, technology and parent resource centers.
2.5 days in Iraq: $ 664 million = Perkins Loan program cut in president's FY 07 budget (would help 463,000 low-income students attend college).
9 hours in Iraq: $99 million = Even Start (eliminated in President's budget).
Source: Congressman John Murtha (Pennsylvania D). Information Clearing House. July 13, 2006. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article13976.htm

THE ASSAULT ON REASON – Book Review
According to former US Vice President Al Gore’s new work “The Assault on Reason”, the Bush administration, in pursuit of its “war on terror”, has violated international laws and norms of conduct, seriously damaged alliances, and thrown away the global goodwill that emerged following 9/11. Gore also addresses global warming, the insidious power of televised control of public discourse, and the role of wealth in US politics, and calls for a rebirth of democracy. Parenthetically, we note that current impacts and consequences of global warming dwarf terrorism, even while noting that the latter has been hyper-stimulated by the war in Iraq.
According to Gore, the Bush Administration’s use of extra-judicial measures at home and abroad has undermined basic principles of law, justice, human rights and democracy. The Geneva Conventions are not being observed (termed “quaint" by the Attorney-General Gonzales), despite the seminal role of the US in their origins. By facilitating torture the Administration has placed its own troops at moral hazard and also physical risk (in the event of their capture). Its practice of “extraordinary rendition” (kidnapping “terror suspects” and forcible relocation to marginal states for interrogation so as to circumvent habeas corpus), has resulted in imprisonment and torture of innocent people (see sidebar on Canadian Mahar Arar). More troubling, it has suppressed its own legal processes in support of what appear to be show trials, in which defence lawyers are unable to gain access to information that would allow them to properly defend their clients. A code of secrecy prevents evidence of human rights abuses from coming to light.

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, some 90% of Guantanamo Bay inmates, held without charge, are innocent of any unlawful activity.
Background Source: BBC World. Mystery Flights. June 10, 2007.
Reference: Gore A. The Assault on Reason. The Penguin Press. New York. 2007.

A BREAKDOWN IN TRUST
July 24: “I don't trust you” asserted Sen. Patrick Leahy, Vermont Democrat, and chair of a Senate Judiciary Committee oversight panel, to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales's on his handling of the U.S. Attorneys firings and civil liberties abuses by the FBI. He stated doubts about the sincerity of Mr. Gonzales' vow to fix "problems" at the Justice Department, and criticized his promise to better police the use of counter-terrorism information gathering tools as insufficient. "With a history of civil liberties abuses and cover-ups, this administration has squandered our trust," Mr. Leahy said. The criticism is bipartisan: ranking Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania, stated "a very heavy cloud" hangs over the Justice Department, and asked "Is your department functioning?" Mr. Gonzales did not respond to these criticisms in the opening statements, but instead asked the panel to help the Justice Department fight terrorism.
Source: Jon Ward, White House correspondent, The Washington Times. Posted July 24, 2007. http://video1.washingtontimes.com/fishwrap/2007/07/i_dont_trust_you.html